【公募基金】跨年行情延续，期待春季躁动——公募基金指数跟踪周报（2025.12.29-2026.01.02）

Equity Market Review and Outlook - The market maintained volatility with major indices showing mixed results during the three trading days from December 29 to December 31, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.13%, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext fell by 0.59% and 1.25% respectively [3] - The highlights were in thematic stocks related to commercial aerospace, robotics, and AI applications, with significant gains in sectors like oil and petrochemicals, defense, and media, while public utilities, food and beverage, and electrical equipment saw declines [3] - The average daily trading volume increased to 21,283 billion yuan, up by 1,632 billion yuan from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [3] - The gradual rise in indices since mid-December is attributed to high expectations for the year-end market, driven by forward-looking investments for 2026 [3] - Concerns over geopolitical tensions in the U.S. and inflation expectations are influencing market sentiment, with a focus on upcoming non-farm employment and inflation data [3] Fixed Income Market Review and Outlook - The bond market showed weak performance, with the 1-year government bond yield rising by 4.50 basis points to 1.33%, the 10-year yield up by 0.51 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30-year yield increasing by 2.96 basis points to 2.25% [6] - Factors influencing the bond market include reduced selling pressure from profit-taking at year-end and the implementation of new regulations on fund sales fees, which have eased concerns among institutional investors [6][7] - However, the central bank's stance indicates a low probability of interest rate cuts in the short term, and there are ongoing concerns regarding long-term bond supply [7] Public Fund Market Dynamics - The China Securities Regulatory Commission officially released the "Regulations on the Management of Sales Fees for Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" on December 31, 2025, marking the completion of a three-phase fee reform in the public fund industry [8] - The new regulations provide detailed guidelines on fund subscription and redemption fees, with specific provisions for index and bond funds, allowing for more flexible fee structures [8][9] - This adjustment aims to prevent large-scale redemptions that could lead to significant volatility in the bond market and to mitigate liquidity risks during bear market phases [9]