2025年科尔尼行业系列回顾｜消费品

Core Insights - The consumer goods industry is transitioning from high growth to a phase of structural differentiation by 2025, with luxury goods, beauty, and food & beverage sectors losing their natural anti-cyclical attributes as consumer demands for "value, health, and transparency" increase [1] - The focus of competition is shifting from scale expansion to the reconstruction of competitive advantages, with key determinants being product mix, operational efficiency, and technological empowerment [1] Luxury Goods - The luxury sector is entering a low growth range of 1%-3%, facing headwinds from key markets and peak pricing, leading consumers to prioritize value and transparency; brands need to enhance uniqueness, upgrade experiences, and streamline operations to navigate through cycles [2] - India is emerging as a significant growth market for luxury goods, with brands needing to align with local culture and consumer upgrade rhythms to build replicable growth models [7] Food & Beverage - The food and beverage industry is seeking innovative paths amid diversified demand and reshaped market dynamics, with a consensus shifting towards "high-quality growth" that emphasizes industry collaboration, innovation, and structural upgrades [6] - Companies must leverage automation, data integration, regionalization, and flexible sourcing to reconstruct operations from "farm to table" in response to consumer, supply chain, and technological pressures [10] Beauty and Personal Care - The beauty and personal care sector is experiencing record-high merger and acquisition activity, with increasing industry differentiation and rising asset supply; the next 12-18 months present a low valuation window for buyers to complete portfolio restructuring before competition intensifies [9] - The U.S. high-end beauty market is transitioning from an expansion phase to slower growth and stronger competition, with consumers becoming more rational and demanding; brands must reshape loyalty, efficacy, and channel strategies to succeed in the next phase [19] Sustainability and Circular Fashion - Circular fashion is progressing but has yet to achieve scalable breakthroughs; the industry requires a more systematic indicator framework and business loop to transform sustainability from a concept into profitability [12] - Alliance marketing serves as both a growth lever and a potential threat to profit and pricing structures, necessitating careful mechanism design, attribution governance, and channel boundary management to avoid "expansion" turning into "internal consumption" [13]