【招银研究】海外宽松交易遇挫，中国股票延续升势——宏观与策略周度前瞻（2026.01.05-01.09）

Group 1: US Macro Strategy - The US economy remains robust, with weekly initial jobless claims falling to 199,000, indicating strong performance beyond seasonal trends, reflecting a positive cycle between businesses and the labor market [2] - The S&P 500 index fell by 1% and the Nasdaq index by 1.5%, with concerns over high valuations and AI monetization pressures persisting in the mid-term outlook [2] - The recommendation is to maintain a standard allocation to US stocks, with expected returns aligning with profit growth, and to consider increasing allocations if a market correction of 10%-20% occurs [2] Group 2: US Debt and Currency - In the context of a rate-cutting cycle, US Treasury yields are expected to trend downward, with a focus on 2-5 year bonds due to liquidity easing [3] - The dollar is anticipated to remain in a downtrend, but the US economy's relative strength suggests no basis for a sustained decline, with a potential rebound expected in 2026 [3] - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate moderately, driven by narrowing interest rate differentials and strong export performance, although short-term appreciation may slow [3] Group 3: China Macro Strategy - Economic sentiment is showing signs of improvement, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 50.1% and the non-manufacturing PMI to 50.2%, indicating a return to expansion [5] - Domestic demand is mixed, with a significant drop in new home transactions by 26.7% in major cities, while tourism and consumption during the New Year holiday showed growth [5] - The government is implementing policies to boost consumption and investment, including optimizing subsidy programs and accelerating infrastructure investments totaling approximately 295 billion yuan [6] Group 4: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing narrow fluctuations, with the recent manufacturing PMI data indicating recovery, while regulatory changes have eased redemption fees for bond funds [7] - The outlook for government bond yields suggests a steep curve, with expectations of moderate inflation and potential for further monetary easing [7] - The strategy recommends focusing on short to medium-term bonds while being cautious with long-term investments until yields reach the upper range [7] Group 5: A-Share Market Performance - The A-share market showed slight gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, driven by year-end currency appreciation and significant capital inflows [8] - Short-term risks include diminishing support from year-end capital influx and potential earnings disappointments during the upcoming reporting season [9] - The market structure indicates strong performance in cyclical and growth sectors, with recommendations to focus on technology stocks driven by AI trends and high-end manufacturing [9] Group 6: Hong Kong Market Outlook - The Hong Kong market saw significant gains post-New Year, with the Hang Seng Index rising 2.76%, attributed to rapid yuan appreciation [9] - The mid-term outlook remains positive for Hong Kong stocks, particularly in technology and high-end manufacturing sectors, with dividend yields being notably higher than comparable A-share stocks [9]