委内瑞拉变局，给“油运”送来风口

Core Viewpoint - The global VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have reached a new high since 2008, driven by geopolitical changes in Venezuela and supply constraints from sanctioned vessels [1][4][11]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Venezuela, holding over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, has experienced significant political upheaval, impacting global energy markets and oil transportation rates [4]. - On January 3, the Baltic crude oil freight index surged by 5%, with VLCC daily rental rates on the Gulf-Caribbean route increasing by 22% in a single day [4]. Group 2: VLCC Freight Rate Trends - VLCC freight rates are expected to show a "stair-step" increase throughout 2025, starting from $40,000/day at the beginning of the year, rising to $50,000-$60,000/day in Q1, and stabilizing around $60,000/day in Q2 [5]. - In Q3, rates may drop to around $40,000/day due to seasonal demand, but by Q4, rates are projected to soar from $65,000/day in September to $125,000/day in December on the Middle East-China route, with some routes reaching extreme highs of $218,000/day [5]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The structural changes in the supply of "black fleet" (sanctioned vessels) and "white fleet" (compliant vessels) are the core drivers of rising freight rates [8]. - As of November 2025, sanctioned VLCC capacity accounted for 15.7% of the global VLCC fleet, with projections of reaching 18%-20% by 2026 [9]. - The exit of sanctioned capacity from the market is a key factor contributing to the current global oil transportation supply shortage and soaring freight rates [11]. Group 4: Aging Fleet Issues - The accelerated retirement of older vessels is also a constraint on supply, with over 20% of the global VLCC fleet being over 20 years old as of November 2025, expected to rise to 22% by 2026 [13].