国泰海通证券研究·2026-01-05 12:55Core Insights - The article emphasizes the increasing importance of the derivatives business for brokerage firms, particularly in the context of their proprietary trading operations [1][2][3] Group 1: Development of Derivatives Business - From 2018 to 2022, the nominal principal of the OTC derivatives business in the brokerage industry grew from 346.7 billion to 2,086.8 billion, achieving a CAGR of 57% [1] - The derivatives business has significantly contributed to the performance of brokerages, reflecting the changes in customer demand and regulatory policies as key factors influencing its development [1] - The derivatives business in China has gone through four major development phases since its inception in 2012, with regulatory improvements and market environment changes being pivotal [1] Group 2: Differentiation Among Brokerages - The evolution of brokerage proprietary models indicates that the growth certainty provided by derivatives will be a key differentiator among brokerages [2] - Previously, brokerage firms had similar self-operated business models, but the current environment has led to a divergence in profitability, with firms leveraging derivatives for stable growth showing stronger performance [2] Group 3: Long-term Outlook - The steady development of the derivatives business is seen as an inevitable trend, with a focus on high-quality leading brokerages that can leverage their customer base and expertise to create competitive advantages [3] - Regulatory frameworks are becoming more standardized, and the recent "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the steady development of futures, derivatives, and asset securitization [3] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The article suggests that the evolution of brokerage proprietary models and the growth certainty provided by derivatives will be critical for future differentiation, favoring high-quality leading brokerages with scale advantages [4]