国泰海通｜食饮：政策落地，景气上行——牧业跟踪报告

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of safeguard measures for imported beef is expected to boost domestic demand, leading to a sustained upward trend in the beef cattle industry [1][4]. Group 1: Import Beef Safeguard Measures - The Ministry of Commerce has announced safeguard measures for imported beef, which will include a 55% tariff on imports outside of the quota starting January 1, 2026 [2][4]. - The total quota for major supplying countries will be reduced by nearly 6% in 2026, with Brazil and Australia facing quota reductions of over 20% [3][4]. - The safeguard measures will last for three years, with annual quota limits gradually relaxed, and unused quotas cannot be carried over to the next year [2][3]. Group 2: Domestic Market Impact - In the first half of 2025, beef imports decreased by 9.5% year-on-year to 1.302 million tons, while live cattle and beef prices have rebounded approximately 20% and 10% from previous lows [4]. - The domestic beef demand is expected to be stimulated by the implementation of the safeguard measures and the reduction in the number of breeding cows [4]. - The beef cattle industry is anticipated to experience a continued upward cycle due to the combined effects of stable raw milk prices and reduced supply-side pressures [2][4].