Palantir：市场终于开始眨眼，但情况可能会更糟

Core Viewpoint - Palantir is recognized as a leading AI software company with a significant market valuation, currently at $400 billion, reflecting its strong position in the enterprise AI platform sector [2][5]. Valuation and Analysis - There is a notable divergence in Wall Street's target prices for Palantir, indicating a lack of consensus on its future prospects. The highest target price significantly exceeds the lowest, contrasting sharply with more consistent valuations seen in other tech giants like Microsoft [4]. - Despite a stock price increase of over 120% in the past year, Palantir has not outperformed the S&P 500 index, raising questions about its high forward P/E ratio of over 200 compared to the software sector average of 30.6 [5]. - Analysts highlight that Palantir's impressive revenue growth and profitability metrics, such as a projected revenue of $8.7 billion by FY2027 and an operating margin of 50%, support its leading market position [8]. Revenue and Growth Potential - Palantir's revenue is expected to reach $8.7 billion by FY2027, with a significant increase in net revenue retention rate from 119% in December 2022 to 134% recently, and a rise in U.S. commercial customers from 132 to 530 [8]. - The company is anticipated to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35% over the next three years to reach a $1 trillion market cap, driven by its AI platform's success in commercial applications [7]. Market Dynamics and Risks - Analysts caution that Palantir's revenue growth rate is projected to slow down from 54% in 2025 to 37% by FY2027, which may challenge the sustainability of its high valuation [9]. - The stock has faced resistance above $190 since August 2025, indicating a potential market correction as investors adjust to a "normalization phase" in growth expectations [11].