螺丝钉黄金星级和牛熊信号板来啦：黄金估值如何？｜2026年1月

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the design of a gold bull-bear signal board by the company, which helps in assessing the valuation of gold, similar to stock market indicators. The signal board is updated regularly for user convenience [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price and Historical Context - Gold prices are primarily referenced from London Gold for overseas markets and Shanghai Gold for domestic markets, with the latter being the standard for local pricing [6]. - Historical data shows that in January 2026, gold was rated at 1.0 star, while it reached over 4 stars during its lowest valuation in 2022. The period from 2011 to 2016 was marked by a prolonged bear market for gold, which lasted longer than the longest bear market in A-shares history [8]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The main factors affecting gold prices include the actual interest rates of the US dollar, which are calculated as nominal interest rates minus inflation rates. A significant decrease in actual interest rates typically leads to an increase in gold prices [12][13]. - Fluctuations in the US dollar's exchange rate also impact gold prices, as a depreciating dollar may drive more investments into gold as a safe haven [15]. - Other influencing factors include regional conflicts and financial crises, which often lead to increased demand for gold as a safe asset during times of uncertainty [18][19]. Group 3: Gold Volatility and Returns - Gold exhibits a volatility rate of approximately 38% and a maximum drawdown of around 44%, comparable to a mixed fund with a 60-70% stock position [22]. - Since 2012, the annualized return for Shanghai Gold has been about 8.12%, outperforming the annualized returns of pure bond indices and the CSI All Share Index [23]. Group 4: Investment Options in Gold - Investors can choose between gold funds and physical gold. Gold funds typically yield slightly lower returns than the actual gold price due to management fees and cash reserves [28][29]. - Physical gold can closely track gold price movements, but there is a risk of counterfeit products, necessitating reliable dealers for purchases [32][33]. - Common forms of physical gold include investment bars, panda gold coins, and gold jewelry, with varying levels of premium and investment value [35][36][39].