热点思考 | 人民币和港股，谁是谁的“影子”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant correlation between the Hong Kong stock market and the Renminbi (RMB) since 2016, highlighting a recent divergence where the RMB appreciated rapidly while the Hong Kong stock market struggled to gain momentum [1][2]. Group 1: RMB and Hong Kong Stock Market Relationship - Historically, there has been a notable positive correlation between the RMB and the Hong Kong stock market, with a negative correlation of -0.54 between the Hong Kong stock index and the USD/RMB exchange rate since 2016 [2][7]. - When the RMB appreciates by more than 1.5% in a month, the Hang Seng Index has a 93.5% probability of rising in that month [2][7]. - However, since November 13, 2025, the RMB appreciated by 1.9%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 4.8%, marking a significant divergence from historical trends [2][24]. Group 2: Reasons for the Divergence - The weak performance of key sectors in the Hong Kong stock market has limited the RMB's ability to amplify profits for Hong Kong-listed companies [3][30]. - The appreciation of the RMB can both amplify profits and losses, and the earnings per share (EPS) for the Hang Seng Index has been declining since the fourth quarter of 2025, weakening the revaluation effect [3][30]. - The real estate and energy sectors, which are typically favored during RMB appreciation, have not stabilized, further dragging down the Hong Kong stock market [3][30]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB and Hong Kong Stock Market - There is potential for the Hong Kong stock market to realign with the RMB as earnings improve and foreign capital flows increase [4][50]. - The combination of rising earnings expectations and the current downward adjustment in profit forecasts may signal a recovery in the Hong Kong stock market [4][50]. - The recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) could attract foreign investment, enhancing the reallocation of domestic savings towards the Hong Kong stock market [4][58]. - Looking ahead, the RMB's appreciation may once again support the Hong Kong stock market, especially after the year-end profit-taking period ends, which typically leads to a strong January effect [4][67].