中金：AI拉动了多少出口

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of AI on global trade, highlighting its potential to reduce trade costs and enhance productivity, which is expected to drive trade growth significantly from 2025 to 2040, with global trade volume projected to increase by 33.7% to 36.7% [2] Group 1: AI-Related Product Exports - Global AI-related product exports are projected to reach $3.1 trillion in 2024, a 10.1% increase from 2023, accounting for 14.5% of total exports, up by 1.2 percentage points [3] - The top three regions for AI-related product exports are Mainland China ($633.6 billion), Hong Kong ($355.4 billion), and Taiwan ($310.6 billion), with Mainland China's share of total exports at 17.7%, relatively low among major economies [3] - The export structure from Mainland China is balanced between intermediate goods (68%) and equipment (31%), although intermediate goods remain dominant [3] Group 2: AI-Related Product Imports - The United States has seen a significant increase in AI-related product imports, driven by a surge in private sector investment in information processing equipment, with a year-on-year increase of 26% in Q2 2025 [4] - By August 2025, AI-related product imports in the U.S. grew by 27% year-on-year, with these products constituting 20.7% of total imports, an increase of 5.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 3: China's AI-Related Product Export Trends - From December 2024 to November 2025, Mainland China's AI-related product exports are expected to reach $690.3 billion, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, although still below the levels seen in July 2022 [5] - The contribution of AI-related products to China's monthly export growth is modest, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 1.7 percentage points in early 2025, compared to 1.4 percentage points in 2024 [5] - In comparison to other economies, AI-related products have driven nearly all export growth in Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, while countries like South Africa and Brazil have seen minimal impact [5] Group 4: AI-Related Services Exports - AI-related services, which include telecommunications, computer, and information services, are also experiencing accelerated growth, with exports reaching $70.8 billion by October 2025, a 13.5% increase year-on-year, surpassing the growth rate of AI-related products [6] - China is positioned to gain a competitive advantage in AI-related services in developing economies due to lower unit costs, with 81% of low-income economies using open-source AI models from China [6]