达利欧：AI热潮处于泡沫初期，美联储或进一步吹大泡沫

Core Viewpoint - The AI hype is currently in the early stages of a bubble, with expectations that the U.S. stock market will significantly underperform non-U.S. stocks and gold assets by 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Major U.S. stock indices are expected to record double-digit gains in 2025, marking the third consecutive year of growth, similar to the trend observed from 2019 to 2021 [3]. - Last year, gold prices surged over 60%, and emerging markets had a strong performance, with the FTSE 100 index outperforming major global markets [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - Investors are increasingly favoring non-U.S. stocks and bonds over U.S. equities and dollar cash, indicating a shift in investment preferences [3][4]. - Concerns about a potential AI bubble have led to market volatility and increased risk aversion among investors [3]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are likely to favor lowering both nominal and real interest rates, which could support asset prices but also exacerbate the bubble [4]. - Analysts suggest that as concerns about the AI bubble grow, investors will actively seek undervalued investment opportunities in the financial markets [4]. Group 4: Bridgewater Performance - Bridgewater's flagship fund, Pure Alpha II, achieved a record return of 34%, marking a significant recovery from previous years of low returns [4]. - The Bridgewater China Macro Fund and All Weather Strategy Fund also reported returns of 34% and 20%, respectively [5].