中金：“被延后”的修复

Core Viewpoint - The experience of Japan's three bull markets in the 1990s illustrates that even in a deflationary environment with real estate downturns and debt issues, policy stimulus and capital inflows can create bull markets. However, if structural problems remain unresolved, the effects of short-term stimulus will diminish, leading to recurring economic interruptions [2][9][10]. Group 1: Structural Issues in Japan in the 1990s - Japan faced several structural issues, including a declining birth rate leading to an aging population, which increased the elderly dependency ratio from 17.4% in 1990 to 25.6% in 2000, an increase of 8.2 percentage points [12][14]. - The public pension system faced significant fiscal pressure due to aging, with pension expenditures as a percentage of GDP rising by 2.1 percentage points during the 1990s, leading to increased public concern about sustainability [14]. - The real estate bubble burst in the early 1990s, with residential land prices declining by approximately 52.8% nationwide and 49.2% in the Tokyo area over more than 20 years [16][22]. - Employment challenges arose as the labor market faced oversupply, with the employment rate for university graduates dropping from 81.3% in 1991 to 55.1% in 2003 [24][25]. - The financial system was strained as the real estate bubble's collapse weakened cash flows for real estate companies, increasing non-performing assets in banks [30]. Group 2: Policy Shortcomings in the 1990s - Japan's policies in the 1990s were insufficient, with a misalignment in technology direction and a reliance on short-term infrastructure investments, which constituted nearly 20% of fiscal spending at one point, failing to generate sustainable long-term growth [4][36]. - The slow response to real estate policy, including gradual reductions in mortgage rates and taxes, prolonged the decline in property prices and damaged household balance sheets [4][53]. - The slow pace of debt resolution and a lenient regulatory approach to non-performing assets weakened the financial system's resilience, leading to higher costs when external shocks occurred [4][57]. Group 3: Policy Awakening After 2000 - Post-2000, Japan shifted its policy focus towards social welfare, with spending on social security rising from 21.4% in 2000 to 32.7% in 2015-2019, contributing to sustained income growth for residents [63]. - The government began to systematically address non-performing assets, with the introduction of the Financial Revitalization Law in 1998, which allowed for significant public funding to tackle the issue [70]. - Technological policies became more aligned with market realities, focusing on key sectors and enhancing direct support for corporate R&D through revised tax incentives [72]. Group 4: Implications for Current Economic Context - Current challenges in China mirror those faced by Japan, with old economic drivers still weighing down growth. The recent slowdown in real estate and domestic demand highlights the need for effective policy measures [6][76]. - The importance of addressing old economic drivers is emphasized, as policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing the real estate market are crucial for long-term recovery [6][77]. - China possesses advantages such as strong government investment in AI technology and a resilient traditional manufacturing sector, which can support exports [76]. - The need for timely debt resolution is critical to avoid escalating costs and to enhance resilience against external shocks, as seen in Japan's experience [78].