Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the current economic indicators and trends affecting various sectors, particularly focusing on financing conditions, construction, real estate, and industrial products, indicating a mixed outlook for the economy in December 2025. Group 1: Liquidity - The BCI small and medium enterprise financing environment index for December 2025 is at 47.15, a decrease of 10.19% month-on-month [4] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference in November 2025 is -3.1 percentage points, down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [4] - The current price of London gold is $4,333 per ounce [4] Group 2: Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national steel PMI new orders index for December decreased by 3.5 percentage points to 45.4% [5] - Weekly price changes include rebar up by 1.22%, cement price index down by 0.06%, rubber up by 0.33%, and iron ore up by 1.77% [5] - National blast furnace capacity utilization rate, cement, and asphalt operating rates changed by -0.39 percentage points, +12.41 percentage points, and -2.4 percentage points respectively [5] Group 3: Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and glass are at low levels, with titanium dioxide price unchanged and flat glass down by 1.09% [6] - The gross profit for titanium dioxide is -1,744 yuan per ton, while the flat glass operating rate is at 73.89% [6] Group 4: Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for December stands at 50.80% [7] - Major commodity price changes include cold-rolled steel down by 0.26%, copper down by 0.32%, and aluminum up by 0.50% [7] - The operating rate for semi-steel tires is at 69.35%, down by 2.70 percentage points [7] Group 5: Subcategories - The price of graphite electrodes is at 19,000 yuan per ton, unchanged, with a gross profit of 2,094.1 yuan per ton, up by 1.63% [8] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22,170 yuan per ton, up by 0.50%, with a calculated profit of 5,015 yuan per ton (excluding tax), up by 1.98% [8] - The price of tungsten concentrate is 454,500 yuan per ton, down by 1.30% from the previous week [8] Group 6: Price Comparison Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.04 this week [10] - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar steel is -30 yuan per ton [10] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) is 300 yuan per ton, up by 50% from last week [10] Group 7: Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in December is 49.00%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [11] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates is 1,146.67 points, up by 1.95% [11] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced that from January 1, 2026, certain steel products will be subject to export license management, which is expected to further regulate steel exports [11] Group 8: Valuation Percentiles - The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.59%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being oil and gas, up by 3.92% [12] - The PB ratio of ordinary steel and industrial metals relative to the PB of the two markets is 31.57% and 100.00% respectively [12] - The current PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the two markets is 0.51, with the highest value since 2013 being 0.82 [12]
【钢铁】钨精矿价格出现自2025年10月以来首次回调——金属周期品高频数据周报（2025.12.29-2026.1.4）（王招华/戴默）
光大证券研究·2026-01-05 23:05