【有色】2025年12月电线电缆企业开工率创近6年同期新低——铜行业周报（20251229-20260102）（王招华/方驭涛）

Core Viewpoint - Short-term copper prices are fluctuating, but the supply-demand tightness expected in 2026 continues to support upward movement in copper prices [4]. Inventory - As of December 31, 2025, domestic copper social inventory increased by 23%, while LME copper inventory decreased by 7% [5]. - Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory stood at 646,000 tons, down 16.7% week-on-week [5]. - Global electrolytic copper inventory totaled 789,000 tons, up 10.2% week-on-week, with LME copper inventory at 145,000 tons, down 7.4% [5]. Supply - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper decreased by 840 yuan/ton week-on-week [6]. - In October 2025, China's refined copper concentrate production was 130,000 tons, down 8.1% month-on-month and 12.1% year-on-year [6]. - Global refined copper concentrate production in October 2025 was 1.938 million tons, down 2.4% year-on-year but up 1.9% month-on-month [6]. Smelting - In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1781 million tons, up 6.8% month-on-month and 7.5% year-on-year [7]. - The TC spot price as of December 31, 2025, was -44.96 USD/ton, down 0.1 USD/ton week-on-week, at its lowest since September 2007 [7]. - In November, electrolytic copper imports were 271,000 tons, down 3.9% month-on-month and 24.7% year-on-year, while exports were 143,000 tons, up 116.8% month-on-month and 1128.1% year-on-year [7]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a decrease in operating rate to 60.75%, down 5.96 percentage points week-on-week [8]. - The air conditioning sector, accounting for about 13% of domestic copper demand, is projected to have production increases of 11%, -11.4%, and -2.4% for January to March 2026 [8]. - Copper rod production, which represents about 4.2% of domestic copper demand, had a brass rod operating rate of 50.2%, up 6.7 percentage points month-on-month but down 4.7% year-on-year [8]. Futures - As of December 31, 2025, the open interest for SHFE copper active contracts decreased by 16% week-on-week, with a total of 208,000 contracts [9]. - The open interest is at the 61st percentile since 1995, while COMEX non-commercial net long positions were 67,000 contracts, up 3.5% week-on-week, at the 91st percentile since 1990 [9].