热点思考 | 人民币和港股，谁是谁的“影子”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant correlation between the Hong Kong stock market and the Renminbi (RMB) since 2016, highlighting a recent divergence where the RMB has appreciated rapidly while the Hong Kong stock market has not followed suit, raising questions about the underlying dynamics and future implications [1][2][3]. Group 1: RMB and Hong Kong Stock Market Relationship - Historically, there has been a significant positive correlation between the RMB and the Hong Kong stock market, with a negative correlation coefficient of -0.54 between the Hong Kong stock index and the USD/RMB exchange rate since 2016 [2][7]. - When the RMB appreciates by more than 1.5% in a month, there is a 93.5% probability that the Hang Seng Index will rise in that month [2][7]. - However, since November 13, 2025, the RMB has appreciated by 1.9%, while the Hang Seng Index has declined by 4.8%, marking a notable divergence from historical trends [2][24]. Group 2: Reasons for the Divergence - The weak performance of key sectors in the Hong Kong stock market has limited the RMB's ability to amplify profits, as the future 12-month EPS for the Hang Seng Index has been declining since Q4 2025 [3][30]. - The appreciation of the RMB typically benefits asset-heavy sectors, but recent instability in property and oil prices has negatively impacted the Hong Kong stock market [3][30]. - The market has been characterized by profit-taking behavior, with low trading volumes limiting the immediate response of the Hong Kong stock market to favorable factors [3][40]. Group 3: Future Outlook for RMB and Hong Kong Stock Market - There is potential for the relationship between the Hong Kong stock market and the RMB to realign, particularly as corporate earnings improve and foreign investment flows are restored [4][50]. - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is crucial for benefiting from the RMB's appreciation, with current trends indicating a potential improvement in earnings expectations [4][50]. - The recovery of the RMB's appreciation effects, alongside a rebound in PPI, could attract foreign investment and lead to a positive spillover effect on the Hong Kong stock market [4][58].