首席商业评论·2026-01-06 04:07Core Viewpoint - The global transformer shortage is becoming a significant issue as demand surges due to increasing electricity needs and the transition to renewable energy sources, with China emerging as the largest beneficiary of this crisis [5][11]. Group 1: Transformer Demand and Supply - The demand for transformers has skyrocketed, with the U.S. experiencing a 116% increase in power transformer supply gaps since 2019, and a 41% increase for distribution transformers [5]. - Europe plans to invest €584 billion to expand its power grid but is hindered by transformer shortages [5]. - China's transformer exports have surged, with a total export value of 29.711 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, marking a 65.39% increase to Asia, 28.03% to Africa, and over 138% to Europe [7]. Group 2: Reasons for Transformer Shortage - The shortage is attributed to aging power systems in Europe and the U.S., with 31% of U.S. transmission equipment and 46% of distribution facilities exceeding their service life [9]. - The rapid rise of new industries, particularly in AI and renewable energy, has further intensified the demand for transformers [9]. - The global push for green energy requires significantly more transformers for solar, wind, and hydroelectric power plants compared to traditional coal-fired plants [9]. Group 3: China's Position in the Transformer Market - China controls 60% of the global transformer production capacity and has seen a dramatic increase in transformer export prices, averaging around $20,800 per unit [7][13]. - The establishment of the China Electrical Equipment Group in 2021 has consolidated major players in the transformer industry, enhancing China's competitive edge [12]. - China is the leading producer of oriented silicon steel, a critical material for transformers, with a production volume of 3.0325 million tons in 2024, significantly outpacing Japan and the U.S. [13]. Group 4: Historical Context and Development - China's journey in the transformer industry began in the 1980s, facing significant technological and equipment challenges, relying heavily on imports [15]. - A pivotal moment occurred in 1986 when a domestically produced transformer outperformed an imported one, marking a turning point in China's high-end transformer manufacturing capabilities [17]. - The development of ultra-high voltage technology has allowed China to establish a vast network of power transmission, with over 40,000 kilometers of ultra-high voltage lines by 2025 [19]. Group 5: China's Energy Landscape - By 2025, China is projected to become the first country to achieve a trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity generation in a single month, highlighting its dominance in global energy production [21]. - China has successfully achieved universal electricity access, contrasting with countries like India, where millions still lack stable power [22]. - The country's advancements in various energy sectors, including hydropower, solar, and nuclear energy, position it as a leader in the global energy landscape [24].