关键变量是货币！达利欧最新复盘2025，预计美股长期回报或仅4.7%……

Core Viewpoint - The main narrative for 2025 revolves around two key sources of returns: the fluctuation of currency values, particularly the US dollar against other currencies and gold, and the relative performance of US stocks compared to non-US stocks and gold, with gold being the best-performing asset of the year [5][6][8]. Group 1: Currency Value Changes - The US dollar depreciated against several currencies: down 0.3% against the Japanese yen, 4% against the Chinese yuan, 12% against the euro, 13% against the Swiss franc, and 39% against gold [6][7]. - The overall narrative indicates that weaker currencies experienced sharper declines, while stronger currencies appreciated [7]. - Gold was the best-performing investment, yielding a 65% return in USD, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18% return by 47 percentage points [8]. Group 2: Stock Market Performance - US stocks, while strong in USD terms, showed weaker performance when measured against stronger currencies, indicating a relative underperformance compared to international markets [16]. - European stocks outperformed US stocks by 23%, Chinese stocks by 21%, UK stocks by 19%, and Japanese stocks by 10%, with emerging market stocks returning 34% [17]. - The S&P 500's total return was driven by a 12% growth in corporate earnings and a 5% increase in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios, with the "seven giants" of the index accounting for a significant portion of this growth [18]. Group 3: Long-term Return Expectations - The long-term expected return for stocks is estimated at approximately 4.7%, while current bond returns are around 4.9%, indicating a very thin equity risk premium [19][20]. - The narrowing of credit spreads to very low levels suggests limited room for further compression, which could lead to upward pressure on spreads and negatively impact equities and credit markets [21]. Group 4: Political and Geopolitical Influences - Political changes, particularly under the Trump administration, have significantly influenced market dynamics, with policies aimed at revitalizing US manufacturing and AI technology impacting asset allocation and investor sentiment [25][26]. - The shift from multilateralism to unilateralism in global politics has increased conflict risks and heightened military spending, further influencing market behaviors and asset preferences [31]. Group 5: Other Influential Forces - The ongoing climate change and technological advancements, particularly in AI, are shaping the investment landscape, with the current AI boom being described as in the early stages of a bubble [31][34]. - The interplay of debt, currency, market dynamics, domestic politics, and geopolitical factors will continue to drive the overall investment environment [34].