人民币升破7，跨境消费怎样花最省钱？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate, highlighting a significant appreciation of the RMB against the USD, driven by various economic factors including trade surpluses and changes in U.S. monetary policy [4][38][39]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - As of December 31, 2025, the USD index fell by 9.04%, while the onshore and offshore RMB appreciated by approximately 4.43% and 5.18%, respectively [38]. - The RMB/USD exchange rate experienced a "V-shaped" rebound throughout 2025, with the offshore RMB reaching a high of 6.9988 on December 26, marking the first time it surpassed the 7.0 threshold since September 2024 [11][12][13]. - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) adjusted the RMB midpoint rate to 7.023 on January 5, 2026, indicating a proactive approach to manage exchange rate expectations [5]. Trade Surplus and Currency Strength - China's trade surplus reached a record $1.08 trillion in the first eleven months of 2025, a 21.7% year-on-year increase, providing a solid foundation for the RMB's appreciation [25]. - The article notes that the strong trade surplus, coupled with a shift in market sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade relations, has contributed to the RMB's upward momentum [8][25]. Market Sentiment and Capital Flows - There has been a notable increase in foreign investment in Chinese assets, with a net inflow of $10.1 billion into domestic stocks and funds in the first half of 2025, reversing a two-year trend of net outflows [7][31]. - The article emphasizes that the RMB's appreciation is not solely driven by trade surpluses but also by a combination of capital inflows from securities investments and derivatives hedging [29]. Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the RMB will experience a "moderate bullish, two-way fluctuation" trend in 2026, with the exchange rate expected to stabilize between 6.80 and 7.00 [9][44]. - The ongoing U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are anticipated to further narrow the interest rate differential between China and the U.S., supporting the RMB's strength [40][44].