碳酸锂涨停！当下需要注意什么？

Market Trends - On January 6, lithium carbonate futures opened high and surged, with the main contract 2605 approaching 138,000 yuan/ton, marking a nearly 14% increase over the first two trading days after the holiday, setting a new high for the period [2] Supply Dynamics - The recent price increase in lithium carbonate is primarily driven by strong expectations of supply contraction. In Yichun, Jiangxi, 27 mining rights for lithium mica were canceled due to stricter environmental and resource regulations, leading to a decrease in local enterprise operating rates. Additionally, the Jiangxi-based lithium mine under CATL is expected to reduce monthly lithium carbonate supply by 8,000 to 10,000 tons due to mining permit issues, with optimistic recovery not anticipated until June 2026 [4] Policy Impacts - The State Council issued a notice on January 5, 2026, regarding solid waste management, which may impact certain mining operations in Jiangxi. The notice emphasizes the integration of mining and processing of heavy non-ferrous metals and discourages new mining projects without self-built mines and tailings disposal facilities [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance announced a continuation of subsidies for heavy trucks and passenger vehicles under a "trade-in" policy, which is expected to improve market confidence regarding first-quarter demand for new energy vehicles [5] Demand Insights - In December 2025, wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 4% year-on-year but decreased by 8% month-on-month, indicating growth pressure in automotive consumption. However, explosive growth in the energy storage sector has extended order schedules into 2026, effectively compensating for seasonal demand gaps in new energy vehicles, providing some support for lithium prices [8] Inventory Analysis - As of January 5, lithium carbonate social inventory was 109,605 tons, with a weekly reduction of 168 tons, marking a slowdown in inventory depletion over five consecutive weeks. The inventory structure shows high downstream and other segment inventories, which may limit future purchasing momentum and exert pressure on further price increases [8] Market Sentiment - Analysts from various firms suggest that while the current demand for lithium carbonate is weakening marginally, long-term demand expectations remain strong. The market sentiment is significantly influenced by geopolitical events and domestic stimulus policies, with expectations of continued upward pressure on lithium prices despite potential short-term corrections due to inventory adjustments [11][12][13]