热点思考 | 设备投资，能否“持续高增”？（申万宏观·赵伟团队）

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the high growth in equipment investment is not primarily driven by the "Two New" policies or the manufacturing Juglar cycle, but rather by strong investment in broad infrastructure and the service sector [2][9][71]. Group 1: Misconceptions about Equipment Investment Growth - Misconception 1: The strong equipment investment is attributed to the Juglar cycle; however, it is actually driven by robust growth in broad infrastructure and service sector investments. In 2024, the growth rates for equipment purchases in construction (65.5%), narrow infrastructure (46.1%), public utilities (16.5%), and services (13.9%) significantly outpaced manufacturing (6.5%), contributing an additional 8.1 percentage points to overall equipment investment [2][9][71]. - Misconception 2: The strong equipment investment is influenced by the "Two New" policies; however, the investment rhythm and structure contradict this view. The special government bonds supporting "Two New" policies will only ramp up in the second half of 2024, while manufacturing and equipment purchase investments had already surged in February 2024 [2][9][71]. - Misconception 3: The strong manufacturing investment is a result of strong equipment investment; in reality, it stems from construction and installation investments (expansion investments). Since 2024, while manufacturing and equipment purchase investments have grown simultaneously, the growth in equipment investment is not solely derived from manufacturing [3][21][71]. Group 2: Drivers of High Equipment Investment Growth - Reason 1: The establishment of a modern industrial system has boosted digital infrastructure, combined with natural renewal cycles and recovering travel demand, driving equipment investment in narrow infrastructure and construction. In 2024, narrow infrastructure equipment purchases contributed 4.3 percentage points to total equipment investment, exceeding manufacturing's contribution [4][25][77]. - Reason 2: The acceleration of energy transition and thermal power renovation investments in central and western regions has strengthened public utility equipment investments, particularly since the intensification of the "dual carbon" policy in 2021 [4][32][77]. - Reason 3: Increased fiscal spending on research and improvements in travel chain demand have driven strong service sector equipment investments. Since 2023, service sector equipment investments have shown a trend of outpacing construction investments [5][42][77]. Group 3: Sustainability of High Equipment Investment Growth - Main Line 1: Narrow infrastructure is expected to rebound significantly, especially in digital infrastructure and hub-related investments. Recent policy measures, including a reduction in the proportion of special refinancing bonds, are anticipated to support a rebound in infrastructure investment in 2026 [6][48][79]. - Main Line 2: The "dual carbon" policy is expected to enhance investments in equipment for carbon reduction, including renovations in high-energy-consuming industries and investments in renewable energy [6][53][79]. - Main Line 3: Policies related to "investment in people" are likely to be significantly strengthened, with service sector equipment investments related to consumer infrastructure expected to recover actively [6][58][79]. - Main Line 4: Equipment investments related to external demand are expected to remain resilient, particularly in sectors supporting the industrialization of emerging economies [6][63][79].