半世纪的轮回，白银从未停止挑逗人性与规则

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent volatility in the silver market, drawing parallels to historical events, particularly the manipulation of the silver market by the Hunt brothers in 1980, and highlights the current market dynamics influenced by various fundamental factors rather than a single entity's control [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 1980, the Hunt brothers manipulated the silver market, accumulating over 200 million ounces and driving prices from approximately $2 to $50 per ounce, leading to regulatory interventions [2][3]. - The Commodity Exchange (CME) implemented "Silver Rule 7" to limit margin purchases and contract holdings, requiring traders to maintain nearly 100% cash to eliminate leverage [2][3]. - The Hunt brothers faced significant financial pressure due to margin calls, leading to a dramatic 80% price collapse of silver within six months [2][3]. Group 2: Current Market Dynamics - The current surge in silver prices is attributed to multiple fundamental factors, including industrial demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy, geopolitical risks, and long-term supply shortages [3][4]. - Unlike the speculative bubble of 1980, the current market has a more robust supply-demand foundation, although concerns about market manipulation and emotional trading remain [3][4]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Structure Issues - The article highlights ongoing issues in market regulation, including conflicts of interest among exchange members who both set rules and trade, leading to potential market manipulation [10][20]. - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has begun to address these issues, but the effectiveness of self-regulation in the commodity markets remains in question [22][23]. - The article suggests that the lessons from the Hunt brothers' experience may prompt necessary reforms in market regulations to prevent similar occurrences in the future [28][30].