中金：经济偏弱运行——12月经济数据前瞻

Core Viewpoint - The economic indicators for December are expected to show a year-on-year decline, with fixed asset investment continuing to decrease, retail sales growth remaining weak, and export growth slightly declining due to base effects. The GDP growth rate for Q4 is projected at 4.6%, with an annual GDP growth rate of 5.0% [2][8]. Group 1: Retail Sales and Consumption - Retail sales are anticipated to continue low growth, with a 30% year-on-year decline in retail sales of four major home appliances in December. The passenger car retail volume is expected to drop by 12.7% year-on-year, a 4.6 percentage point increase in the decline compared to November [3]. - The restaurant industry is experiencing a downturn, with the December restaurant PMI at 42.0%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is below the average performance from 2010 to 2024 [3]. Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - The decline in fixed asset investment growth is expected to continue, with a projected annual decrease of -3.0% for January to December, compared to -2.6% for the first eleven months [3]. - Manufacturing investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6% for the entire year, down from 1.9% in the first eleven months [3]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Real Estate - Infrastructure investment is expected to turn negative, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of -0.4% for the year. Although there are new policies to support investment, the effects may not be fully realized until early 2026 [4]. - Real estate development investment is projected to have a cumulative year-on-year decline of -16.5% for the year, with December sales showing a year-on-year drop of 27.3% [4]. Group 4: Exports and Industrial Production - Export growth is expected to decline due to base effects, with a projected year-on-year growth of 3.0% in December, down from 5.9% in November. Imports are expected to decrease by 2.9% year-on-year [5]. - Industrial production is projected to grow by 6.0% year-on-year in December, influenced by seasonal effects and increased operating rates in major industries [5]. Group 5: Inflation and Price Indices - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain stable at 0.7% year-on-year, with food prices showing slight improvements and energy prices declining [6]. - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to narrow its year-on-year decline to -2.0% in December, with fluctuations in raw material prices impacting the overall index [7]. Group 6: Financial Data - Social financing and monetary growth are expected to decline, with new loans projected to reach 900 billion yuan in December. The net issuance of government bonds is expected to decrease significantly year-on-year [7].