中金 | AI寻机系列05：燃机余热锅炉——能源转型催生增量蓝海

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing demand for gas-fired power generation in North America due to a surge in electricity needs driven by AI and data centers, leading to a favorable market for gas turbine combined cycle plants and heat recovery steam generators (HRSG) [2][3]. Group 1: North American Gas Turbine Market - The gap in gas turbines in North America is widening, with a significant increase in orders from leading overseas manufacturers expected by 2025, driven by the retirement of traditional units and the rising demand for data center power [3]. - The North American HRSG market is projected to see a rise in both volume and price by 2026, with a focus on domestic equipment manufacturers expanding into overseas markets [3]. - The global HRSG market is estimated to reach approximately $7.8 billion in 2024, with gas turbine HRSGs being a critical component in combined cycle power plants [3][18]. Group 2: Electricity Demand and Supply Dynamics - The electricity demand in the U.S. is experiencing a significant increase, with data center capacity expected to grow from 30 GW in 2020 to 53.7 GW by the end of 2024, and projections for 2030 ranging from 47 to 109 GW [4][6]. - Gas-fired power generation is becoming the preferred solution to address the electricity shortage, as it offers a shorter construction cycle, lower investment costs, and flexibility in operation [6]. - Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi are reporting substantial increases in gas turbine orders, with GE's orders up 39% and Siemens' up 63% year-on-year [7][6]. Group 3: HRSG Market Characteristics - The efficiency of combined cycle power plants (CCPP) is significantly higher than traditional power plants, with CCPP achieving over 60% efficiency compared to 35-45% for conventional plants [8]. - The North American HRSG market is characterized by high concentration, with B&W and SPX holding about 50% of the market share, and a notable increase in order backlogs for these companies [13][10]. - The demand for HRSGs is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 4.8% over the next five years, driven by the electricity shortage and the need for efficient power generation solutions [10][18]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape and Opportunities - The competitive landscape for HRSG manufacturers is heavily reliant on systematic capabilities, with domestic leaders possessing the ability to design non-standard parameters and leverage experience from mature projects [3][10]. - The article suggests that the rising prices in the North American HRSG market and the accelerated pace of domestic companies entering overseas markets present significant opportunities for growth [3][10]. - The global HRSG market is expected to grow from $7.8 billion in 2024 to $12 billion by 2033, indicating a robust growth trajectory for the industry [18][20].