【固收】为何央行只购入500亿国债？——2026年1月6日利率债观察（张旭）

Core Viewpoint - The central bank's cautious approach to purchasing government bonds, with a net liquidity injection of only 50 billion yuan in December 2025, contrasts sharply with the higher monthly net purchases of 100 to 300 billion yuan seen from August to December 2024, indicating a strategy of prudent control over bond buying [4][5]. Group 1 - The limited bond purchases by the central bank are intended to manage liquidity and avoid excessive influence on bond yields, which can be affected through both supply-demand dynamics and investor expectations [5][6]. - The expectation of bond yield declines is largely driven by market speculation rather than direct actions from the central bank, as evidenced by the 14 basis point drop in the 10-year government bond yield from the first quarter to the end of July 2024, despite the central bank only starting bond purchases in August [5][6]. - The central bank aims to reduce the correlation between its bond purchases and yield movements to prevent market overreaction and maintain effective liquidity management [6][7]. Group 2 - The central bank may increase its bond purchase scale when market focus on this issue diminishes, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards viewing bond operations similarly to daily reverse repo operations [7]. - The ideal scenario envisioned is one where the central bank can flexibly use bond buying to manage liquidity without causing significant fluctuations in bond yields, reflecting a more stable market environment [7].