扩产不能停！花旗：三星、台积电、英特尔三巨头资本开支将有积极指引

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup anticipates that TSMC will set its 2026 capital expenditure guidance in the range of $46 billion to $48 billion, while Intel's capital expenditure is expected to stabilize, and Samsung may increase its investment following Micron's expansion plans. The combined capital expenditures of these three companies account for approximately 59% of Citigroup's 2026 global WFE spending model, indicating their capital expenditure trends serve as a bellwether for the entire semiconductor equipment industry [1][3]. Group 1: TSMC - TSMC is expected to announce its 2026 capital expenditure guidance between $46 billion and $48 billion, with potential for upward adjustments throughout the year [5]. - Citigroup's model predicts TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 to be $47 billion, with additional upward potential [5]. - Market expectations for TSMC's 2026 capital expenditure are around $50 billion, reflecting optimism regarding TSMC's expansion efforts [5]. Group 2: Intel - Citigroup forecasts Intel's 2026 capital expenditure to stabilize, benefiting from improvements in its backend customer pipeline, with projected expenditures of $18 billion in 2025 and $15 billion in 2026 [6]. - Intel is expected to maintain its 2025 capital expenditure guidance at $18 billion and project approximately $16 billion for 2026 [6]. - Despite a decrease in capital expenditure for 2026 compared to 2025, Intel's capital spending is expected to stabilize due to growth in its backend packaging business [6]. Group 3: Samsung - Citigroup believes Samsung's 2026 capital expenditure has room for upward adjustment, influenced by Micron's significant increase in capital expenditure guidance [7]. - Samsung's management has indicated a flexible approach to 2026 capital expenditure, planning to increase investments based on the growth in AI demand [7]. - Micron's recent announcement to raise its 2026 net capital expenditure from $18 billion to $20 billion, a 45% increase, may prompt Samsung to take similar actions to maintain its market position [8].