LSEG跟“宗” | 贵金属给予其投资者丰厚的2025年 预计2026年有波动但强势持续

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current sentiment in the precious metals market based on the latest CFTC data, highlighting the disparity between physical demand and futures market dynamics, particularly in gold and silver [2][17]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices increased by 64.4% in 2025, despite a contraction in net long positions in futures contracts [2][17]. - Silver saw a remarkable rise of 147% in 2025, with the gold-silver ratio declining by 33.4% [3]. - Platinum prices rose by 127% in 2025, with its valuation relative to silver at a historical low, indicating it is currently undervalued compared to silver [3][26]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Fund Positions - As of December 23, 2025, net long positions in gold futures were at 428 million, up by 2.5% from the previous week, while silver saw a decrease of 1.8% in net long positions [5][8]. - The net long position in platinum futures dropped significantly by 30.9%, indicating a bearish sentiment [5]. - The sentiment in the copper market is notably optimistic, with net short positions at their lowest since records began in 2007, reflecting excessive bullishness [18]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Projections - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in March 2026 is approaching 50%, with a slight increase from previous weeks [25]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the relationship between interest rate changes and commodity prices, particularly in the context of a potential new bull market [31][35]. - The market is currently speculating on the Fed's future actions, with some investors betting on rate hikes in 2027, despite low probabilities at present [25].