Ray Dalio：美股估值见顶，黄金跑赢一切，全球迈入多边主义向单边主义的危险转型

Group 1 - The core investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of US stocks, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [1][4][12] - US stocks recorded an 18% return in USD terms, but this is largely attributed to the depreciation of fiat currencies, creating a "valuation illusion," while gold saw a 65% return [5][12] - The S&P 500 index actually declined by 28% when measured in gold, highlighting the disparity in performance when considering different currencies [5][12] Group 2 - The depreciation of fiat currencies has led to a re-evaluation of asset values, with the USD falling 13% against the Swiss Franc, 12% against the Euro, and 4% against the Chinese Yuan [6][11] - Gold has solidified its position as a major reserve asset, taking on the role of the second-largest reserve currency, which has significant implications for wealth transfer and purchasing power [6][11] - The interest of foreign investors in USD-denominated assets is waning, as evidenced by the negative returns of US Treasuries when measured in gold [6][16] Group 3 - The structural imbalance in profit distribution is evident, with the "Seven Giants" of the S&P 500 showing a 22% profit growth, while the remaining stocks only grew by 9% [7][21] - The improvement in profit margins is largely due to technological efficiencies, but the benefits are disproportionately accruing to capital owners rather than workers, raising concerns about political ramifications [7][22] - The current high valuations and low credit spreads indicate that there is little room for additional returns from risk premiums, suggesting a potential downturn in equity returns [7][23] Group 4 - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital and private equity are under pressure, facing significant debt rollover challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [8][26] - The disparity in performance between liquid and non-liquid assets is expected to widen, as the latter struggles with higher financing costs and cash-out pressures [8][26] - The current environment of fiscal and monetary re-inflation has led to a broad increase in asset prices, but this expansion may not be sustainable, particularly for non-liquid investments [8][27] Group 5 - The political landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of USD-denominated assets [9][35] - The affordability crisis driven by inflation is becoming a central political issue, with the wealth gap between the top 10% and the bottom 60% of the population leading to potential political unrest [9][35] - The upcoming elections in 2026 and 2028 are expected to be influenced by these wealth distribution conflicts, potentially leading to significant market impacts [9][35]