当心经济的非线性修复，A股的非线性暴涨

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that economic and market changes are not linear, and significant shifts often occur when certain critical points are reached, challenging conventional linear thinking [3][79]. Group 1: Economic Cycles - Economic recovery is often sudden and unexpected, with people remaining pessimistic even after signs of improvement [10][11]. - The current economic outlook for 2026 shows a lack of visible recovery signs, but this does not mean improvement is impossible [14]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Economic Impact - Interest rates significantly influence the economy, and traditional theories suggest that lowering rates can stimulate growth [16][17]. - A critical point exists for interest rates, where only reductions below this threshold will have a substantial impact on the economy [26][27]. - If the Federal Reserve lowers rates in 2024 and 2025, it could lead to a significant economic turnaround in 2026 [29][32]. Group 3: Policy and Domestic Demand - Current domestic policies are cautious due to the defensive phase of the US-China competition, focusing on building a solid foundation rather than immediate economic stimulus [39][40]. - Once the competitive dynamics shift, more effective policies to boost domestic demand are expected to be implemented [42]. Group 4: Emotional and Market Dynamics - Market sentiment can change rapidly, as seen in stock market fluctuations where pessimism can quickly turn to optimism [56][58]. - The stock market often experiences sudden shifts driven by large institutional investors rather than retail investors, leading to unpredictable trends [69][71]. Group 5: Summary of Investment Strategy - The article concludes that understanding the non-linear nature of economic and market changes is crucial for investors, advocating for a balanced investment approach rather than chasing trends [86][89].