焦煤焦炭涨停！发生了什么？能持续吗？

Market Trends - On January 7, coking coal and coke futures saw multiple contracts hit the daily limit, with the main coking coal contract closing at 1164 CNY/ton, up 7.98%, and the main coke contract at 1773 CNY/ton, also up 7.98% [1][3] Market Analysis - The surge in coking coal and coke futures is primarily driven by news, macro sentiment, and capital flows. Key news includes a report from the Yulin municipal government regarding coal supply guarantees, indicating a reduction of 1.9 million tons in production capacity from 26 coal mines due to insufficient supply guarantees for 2024-2025 [4][14] - Additionally, Mongolia's cancellation of four special mining licenses is seen as part of internal anti-corruption efforts rather than a reduction in coal production, with plans to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons [4] - Macroeconomic sentiment has improved, with expectations of continued monetary easing from the People's Bank of China, contributing to a stronger atmosphere in the bulk commodity market [4][5] Supply and Demand Overview - On the supply side, there is a divergence in import pressures, with the end of the Mongolian coking coal surge cycle and high inventory levels at ports. The Australian coal price index shows a steady increase, but the price gap with domestic coal remains significant, leading to a narrowing of the import window [6][16] - Demand from steel mills has increased, with the profit rate for 247 steel mills rising to 38.1%, the highest in seven weeks, and daily iron output increasing by 0.85 million tons week-on-week [9][10] - Inventory levels indicate a significant accumulation, with coking coal inventory up by 3.58% and coke inventory down by 0.69%, suggesting an overall improvement in supply-demand dynamics [12] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The black coal sector, particularly coking coal, is noted as a sentiment indicator with high volatility. The price of the JM01 contract fell from around 1300 CNY in early November to 930 CNY by mid-December, a drop of 30%, before rebounding due to macroeconomic factors [13][14] - The market is at a critical point in the inventory cycle, with expectations of a new inventory cycle starting around mid-2026, potentially leading to economic stabilization and surprises in the black coal sector [14] - Current sentiment is strong, but caution is advised as the market approaches overheating. The focus will be on the recovery pace of domestic mines and the impact of winter storage demand on coking coal prices [17]