它2026有望迎来量产元年

Group 1: AI Industry Investment Stage - The current AI industry is in a critical investment phase, with historical patterns indicating that during the valuation expansion period, high valuation ranges are sensitive to liquidity changes. The core driver during the profit-driven phase is performance exceeding expectations, with leading companies' stock prices peaking at valuation levels of approximately 30-40 times over the next three years. Caution is advised regarding intensified industry competition and the risk of overcapacity [1] Group 2: Current AI Market Conditions - Overseas computing power is in a profit-driven phase, with leading companies' forward P/E ratios between 20-30 times, indicating a reasonable valuation level and a lack of bubble conditions. Performance upgrades are the key driver for future stock price increases [2] - Domestic computing power is in a valuation expansion phase, but the risk premium is approaching a low-cost performance ratio. The next market rally may depend on performance realization driven by increased penetration rates [2] - AI applications are also in a valuation expansion phase, with relatively high valuation attractiveness measured by risk premiums. However, investment challenges arise from the unpredictability of when and in which fields blockbuster applications will emerge. Hong Kong-listed internet platform companies are expected to benefit, while the A-share media industry is highlighted as particularly noteworthy [2] Group 3: TPU Market Potential - Thermoplastic polyurethane (TPU) is expected to enter a mass production year by 2026, with its superior mechanical properties and plasticity making it a core material choice for flexible protective layers in humanoid robots. Leading manufacturers are actively exploring TPU applications in robot "skin" and "muscle" [3] - The collaboration between Fourier and Basf in August 2025 to jointly develop engineering plastics and TPU for robotics marks an acceleration in the penetration of polymer materials in embodied intelligence [4] - Driven by the expansion of demand in shoe materials and films, along with stricter environmental policies and manufacturing upgrades, China's TPU consumption is projected to grow at an annual rate of approximately 10% from 2019 to 2024, reaching 720,000 tons by 2024. Currently, nearly 30% of demand comes from the shoe material market, but TPU's penetration in high-end fields such as films and electronic injection molding is continuously increasing [4]