TRIP.COM(US:TCOM) 格隆汇APP·2026-01-07 11:33Core Viewpoint - Ctrip Group has been selected as a core asset in the consumer tourism sector for 2026, reflecting its strong position and potential for growth in the recovering tourism market [2][3]. Summary by Sections Selection Logic and Analysis - Despite pressures in the domestic consumption market in 2025, the tourism sector shows clear signs of recovery, supported by policies aimed at increasing consumer spending [3]. - Ctrip is transitioning from a "domestic OTA leader" to a "comprehensive tourism ecosystem service provider," leveraging its unique model of "stable domestic base + international business expansion + full supply chain coverage + technology empowerment" [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Ctrip reported revenue of 47 billion yuan, a 16% year-on-year increase, and adjusted operating profit of 13.29 billion yuan, up 11.5%, demonstrating strong resilience in a challenging consumption environment [3]. Revenue Structure - Revenue breakdown for Q1-Q3 2024 and 2025 shows growth in various segments, including accommodation bookings increasing from 16.4 billion yuan to 19.8 billion yuan, and other services from 3.4 billion yuan to 4.5 billion yuan [5]. Competitive Advantages - Ctrip's leadership in the industry is attributed to over 20 years of accumulated competitive advantages, creating barriers for new entrants [8]. - The brand and traffic barrier is significant, with Ctrip and Qunar occupying the top two positions in the domestic tourism service industry, maintaining a user repurchase rate above 60% [8]. - Ctrip has a robust supply chain covering over 750,000 hotels in China and 1.2 million hotels globally, providing a comprehensive one-stop service for diverse travel needs [8]. - The company has established a global presence through acquisitions like Skyscanner and Trip.com, enhancing its international business matrix [9]. - Continuous investment in AI technology has improved operational efficiency, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 34.6% in Q3 2025, showcasing significant cost reduction and efficiency gains [11]. Industry Trends - Ctrip benefits from three core trends in the domestic consumption and tourism industry, including policy support for service consumption upgrades, steady growth in the domestic tourism market, and increasing OTA penetration rates [12]. - The domestic tourism market saw an 18% year-on-year increase in tourist numbers and an 11.5% increase in tourism revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [12]. - OTA penetration reached 51.5% in 2024, with Ctrip capturing a significant share of the market as the industry consolidates [12]. Business Layout - Ctrip has diversified beyond a single travel booking platform, developing three core business segments that work synergistically to create a stable and growing profit structure [14]. - Domestic tourism remains the core profit base, with Ctrip and Qunar catering to a wide range of customer needs, contributing over 80% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [15]. - International tourism is emerging as a high-growth engine, with Q3 2025 bookings for inbound travel doubling compared to pre-pandemic levels [15]. - Ctrip's diversified service offerings, including vacation products and business travel management, enhance its revenue ecosystem [16]. Investment Outlook for 2026 - Ctrip presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its attractive valuation and strong growth prospects, with an adjusted P/E ratio around 20, indicating a historical low [18]. - Revenue growth for 2026 is projected at 15%-17%, driven by domestic business growth and international expansion, with net profit growth expected to reach 18%-20% [18]. - Long-term trends such as policy support and rising consumer income will continue to benefit Ctrip, positioning it as a key player in the recovery of the tourism sector [18][20].