东吴汽车黄细里团队·2026-01-07 12:21Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant advancements in L4 and L3 autonomous driving technologies, highlighting a dual stronghold in the U.S. and China, with notable developments in commercial applications and regulatory approvals [3][10]. Group 1: December Smartization Marginal Changes Summary - L4 commercialization is experiencing global resonance, while L3 policies have made a "0-1" breakthrough. Tesla has initiated pure unmanned testing in Austin without safety drivers or passengers, and the Chinese version of FSD has completed compliance construction in Shanghai [3][10]. - Waymo's monthly active users have increased by 96.6% year-on-year to 1.64 million, accelerating the validation of its business model. Domestic players like Pony.ai have integrated into the WeChat ecosystem, and CAOCAO's "Ten Years, One Hundred Cities, One Hundred Billion" Robotaxi strategy continues to expand [3][10]. - The policy side for L3 has seen a milestone breakthrough with the issuance of the first batch of L3 permits by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, marking a transition from assisted driving to conditionally automated driving in China [3][10]. Group 2: January Smartization Catalysts - The industry may enter a year of Robotaxi explosion, driven by both technology and policy, accelerating towards an "iPhone moment" for AI smart vehicles. CES 2026 is expected to be a key industry indicator, with NVIDIA's CEO focusing on the latest advancements in physical AI [4][10]. - In the L4 dimension, attention is on Tesla's FSD V14.2 performance across the U.S. without driver intervention and the expansion of its fleet. For L3, January 2026 will mark the first complete month for public road commercial trials in cities like Chongqing and Beijing, with a focus on operational takeover rates and accident liability cases [4][10]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The company maintains a strong outlook for the L4 RoboX theme in 2026, favoring B-end software stocks over C-end hardware stocks. Preferred H-shares include Xpeng Motors, Horizon Robotics, Pony.ai, WeRide, CAOCAO, and Black Sesame Intelligence, while A-shares include Qianli Technology, Desay SV, and Jingwei Hirain [5][10]. - Relevant downstream application stocks include those in the Robotaxi sector, such as Tesla and Xpeng Motors, as well as technology providers like Horizon and Baidu. The transformation of ride-hailing and taxi services involves companies like Didi, CAOCAO, and others [5][10]. Group 4: Supply Chain Insights - In the upstream supply chain, key players include B-end unmanned vehicle manufacturers like BAIC BluePark, GAC Group, and Jiangling Motors, along with core suppliers for testing services, chips, domain controllers, sensors, and other components [5][10]. - The investment landscape is characterized by a spiral upward iteration of hardware and software, with significant opportunities in both sectors as the industry transitions from the 0-1 stage to more advanced phases [15][10].