达利欧年度复盘：美元贬值，美股高回报只是“计价幻觉”，黄金跑赢一切

Group 1 - The core investment narrative for 2025 is not the strong performance of the US stock market, but rather the significant changes in currency values and the global shift in asset allocation, with gold emerging as the true winner [3][6] - The US stock market recorded an 18% return in USD terms, but this is largely attributed to the depreciation of fiat currencies, creating a "valuation illusion" [6][8] - The dollar depreciated by 39% against gold, while the return from going long on gold (in USD terms) reached 65%. When measured in gold, the S&P 500 index actually declined by 28% [6][14] Group 2 - There is a notable shift of funds towards non-US markets, with the overall return from emerging markets reaching 34%, significantly outperforming US stocks [7][19] - The valuation of US stocks appears to have peaked, with equity risk premium being extremely low and the expected long-term return on equities (4.7%) falling below that of bonds (4.9%) [7][22] - The political and systemic transformation driven by inflation is causing dissatisfaction among the lower 60% of the population, leading to predictions of intense political conflict between extreme left and right forces in the US by 2027-2028 [7][28] Group 3 - The collective weakening of fiat currencies has established gold as a primary reserve asset, with the dollar depreciating against several currencies, including a 13% drop against the Swiss franc and a 12% drop against the euro [8][12] - The structural imbalance in the US stock market is evident, where profit growth is driven by a few major companies, while the distribution of profits remains heavily skewed towards capital owners rather than workers [9][21] - Non-liquid markets such as venture capital and private equity are under pressure, facing significant debt extension challenges and a potential rise in liquidity premiums [10][26] Group 4 - The geopolitical landscape is shifting from multilateralism to unilateralism, increasing military spending and sanctions, which diminishes the attractiveness of dollar-denominated assets [11][35] - The affordability crisis, stemming from currency value issues, is becoming a central political conflict, with the wealth gap between the top 10% and the bottom 60% exacerbating social tensions [11][28] - The current political climate, influenced by the Trump administration's policies, is expected to lead to significant market and economic impacts, particularly regarding wealth distribution and inflation concerns [11][27]