李迅雷专栏 | 大国博弈，科技领航——2026年中国经济展望

Core Viewpoint - The GDP growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies aimed at promoting consumption and expanding investment to ensure a good start for the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][6] Export Performance - China's exports are expected to maintain resilience, with a projected nominal growth of 3.4% year-on-year in 2026, supported by factors such as strong external demand and stable Sino-US tariffs [8][12][32] - In 2025, China's export performance exceeded expectations, with nominal year-on-year growth rates of 5.4% in USD and 6.2% in RMB for the first 11 months [9] - The contribution of net exports to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025 was 1.5 percentage points, accounting for 29% of the total GDP growth [9] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment is expected to recover slightly from 1% in 2025 to around 2% in 2026, supported by resilient exports and policy support for advanced manufacturing [2][62] - The decline in manufacturing investment observed since Q3 2025 is attributed to factors such as "strong supply, weak demand" and trade uncertainties [41][47] - The government is likely to continue supporting advanced manufacturing through fiscal, credit, and industrial policies, emphasizing the importance of technological independence [40][52] Real Estate Sector - The direct drag of the real estate sector on the economy is expected to weaken, with a projected year-on-year decline of 5% in housing sales area for 2026 [63][64] - Real estate investment is anticipated to decline by approximately 11% year-on-year in 2026, an improvement from a 16% decline in 2025 [63][66] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are being strengthened to prevent negative spillovers to other sectors [66][68] Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is crucial for achieving the 5% GDP growth target in 2026, with a focus on promoting consumption and investment [70][75] - The government is expected to maintain support for consumption through long-term special bonds, with a focus on enhancing consumer sentiment and addressing high baseline effects from previous consumption incentives [4][73] - Infrastructure investment is projected to rebound to around 8% year-on-year in 2026, supported by previously announced policies [4][70]