国泰海通 · 晨报260108｜元旦文旅景气增长，科技周期延续涨价

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth in tourism and cultural activities during the New Year period, alongside the continuation of price increases in the technology sector, indicating a mixed performance in the macroeconomic landscape [3]. Group 1: Tourism and Cultural Activities - The New Year holiday saw a significant increase in travel demand, with an average daily cross-regional flow of 198 million people, up 19.5% year-on-year, and an average daily entry-exit figure of 2.205 million, up 28.6% year-on-year [4]. - Domestic tourism showed improvement, with average daily tourist numbers and revenue increasing by 5.2% and 6.3% respectively compared to the previous year, driven by enhanced service supply and flexible holiday arrangements [4]. - Shanghai Disneyland's congestion index rose by 128.8% year-on-year during the last week of 2025, indicating a surge in visitor numbers [4]. Group 2: Downstream Consumption - The price of live pigs increased by 3.9% as of December 28, driven by improved demand for New Year preparations [5]. - Real estate sales remain under pressure, with transaction volumes in 30 major cities down 26.0% year-on-year, and significant declines observed across first, second, and third-tier cities [5]. - Retail sales of passenger vehicles decreased by 12% year-on-year during the last week of December 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the durable goods sector [5]. Group 3: Technology and Manufacturing - The electronic industry continues to thrive, with prices for DRAM memory chips increasing by 2.6% to 7.1% across different types as of January 2 [6]. - Chemical raw material prices showed mixed performance, with PX prices rising by 6.4% while PTA prices slightly declined [6]. - Industrial metal prices have continued to rise due to supply disruptions and expectations of interest rate cuts, with coal prices stabilizing at a 0.9% increase [6].