【有色】铝铜比修复叠加供给扰动积极看多铝价，国内外政策预期夯实氧化铝底部——铝行业动态报告（王招华/马俊）

Core Viewpoint - The domestic electrolytic aluminum price reached 23,300 yuan/ton as of January 5, 2026, marking the highest level since March 2022 [4] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - The copper-aluminum price ratio hit 4.49 on December 29, 2025, the highest since 2003, indicating a potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors, particularly in the wire and cable industry due to its price advantage and favorable physical properties [5] - The domestic aluminum consumption structure is shifting, with transportation and power aluminum usage expected to rise from 19.7% and 15.0% in 2023 to 23.85% and 16.27% in 2025, respectively [7] - The total domestic aluminum consumption is projected to reach 57.37 million tons in 2026, maintaining a year-on-year growth of over 1.7% [8] Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Challenges - Overseas electrolytic aluminum supply is facing disruptions, with Century Aluminum's Iceland production line temporarily halting operations due to equipment failure, reducing its operational capacity from 317,000 tons/year to 105,700 tons/year [6] - South32's Mozal aluminum plant, with a capacity of approximately 600,000 tons/year, is expected to enter maintenance mode by March 15, 2026, due to unresolved power supply agreements [6] - The supply of bauxite remains constrained, with China's reliance on imports from Guinea increasing, which may impact the pricing of alumina in the future [9] Group 3: Policy and Regulatory Environment - The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the need for better management and optimization in resource-intensive industries like alumina and copper smelting, reinforcing expectations against excessive investment and disorderly construction [9] - The ongoing development of national standards related to aluminum applications, such as the air conditioning heat exchanger standards, indicates a regulatory push towards enhancing aluminum's market position [5]