【石油化工】电石、氯碱工业：“反内卷”加速供给侧出清，龙头竞争力有望提升——反内卷稳增长系列十二（赵乃迪/周家诺/蔡嘉豪/王礼沫）

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" policies and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's (MIIT) initiatives are expected to accelerate the elimination of outdated capacities in high-energy-consuming industries, promoting healthier development in the chemical sector [4]. Group 1: Policy Impact - The MIIT announced a new round of stability growth plans for ten key industries, including steel, non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials, aimed at structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacities [4]. - The "anti-involution" policies emphasize the need for orderly market competition and the governance of chaotic corporate behaviors, which will further drive capacity management in key industries [4]. - The petrochemical industry is projected to achieve an average annual growth of over 5% in value-added from 2025 to 2026, with significant improvements in economic efficiency and technological innovation capabilities [4]. Group 2: Industry Analysis - Calcium Carbide - By 2025, China's total calcium carbide production capacity is expected to be 41.66 million tons, a decrease of 7.1% from the peak of 44.83 million tons in 2022 [5]. - The top six companies in the calcium carbide industry have a combined capacity of 9.8 million tons, resulting in a CR6 concentration of only 23.5%, indicating a fragmented capacity structure [5]. - The apparent consumption of calcium carbide is projected to be 24.90 million tons in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.45% due to weak downstream PVC demand [5][6]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Liquid Alkali - The single-ton gross profit for liquid alkali is expected to be 744 yuan by the end of 2025, marking a low point since 2021 [7]. - The total production capacity for caustic soda is projected to reach 51.66 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.46%, with a CR6 concentration of only 12.9% [7]. - The current low industry profitability and intensified competition are anticipated to lead to the accelerated elimination of outdated capacities, improving supply-side conditions [7]. Group 4: Industry Analysis - PVC - The construction and real estate sectors remain the primary application areas for PVC, accounting for 41% of the total consumption in 2025, indicating a close relationship between PVC demand and these industries [8]. - The apparent consumption of PVC is expected to be approximately 18.66 million tons in 2025, a decline of 7.1% compared to 2020, with recovery in demand still awaited [8]. - The total PVC production capacity is projected to be 30.38 million tons in 2025, with the top six companies holding a combined capacity of 7.89 million tons, resulting in a CR6 concentration of 26% [8].