【光大研究每日速递】20260108

Macro - The bond market has partially digested three major concerns, with actual impacts being lower than market expectations. However, upward policy impulses and a positive start for the economy and stock market may continue to pressure bond market sentiment. Favorable factors include the lack of strong explanatory power of government bond supply on interest rate trends and the central bank's willingness and ability to maintain liquidity. The overall outlook for the bond market is not pessimistic, and current strategies should focus on allocation while patiently waiting for trading opportunities [5]. Non-ferrous Metals - As of January 5, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum prices reached 23,300 yuan/ton, the highest since March 2022. The copper-aluminum price ratio peaked at 4.5, the highest since 2003, indicating potential acceleration in aluminum replacing copper in certain sectors. Disruptions in overseas electrolytic aluminum supply and limited short-term expansion of new capacity are noted. The aluminum consumption in 2026 is expected to remain resilient due to the transformation of old and new driving forces and the rise of emerging fields. Policy expectations in both domestic and international markets are gradually solidifying the bottom for alumina prices [5]. Petrochemical - Future policies will focus on "anti-involution" and the elimination of outdated production capacity. The profitability of high-energy-consuming industries like calcium carbide and chlor-alkali is at a low point, and intensified competition on the cost side is expected to accelerate the exit of outdated facilities. This will help reduce industry supply and increase concentration, while also promoting the modernization and large-scale development of facilities, thereby enhancing the overall competitiveness of the calcium carbide and chlor-alkali industries [5]. Overseas TMT - Minimax, a leading general multimodal large model platform, has entered a phase of scaled commercialization as of 2025. The company's business model centers on self-developed general large models, achieving commercialization through API calls, model customization, solution output, and proprietary AI applications. The company is increasing R&D investment to enhance model training, inference efficiency, and multimodal capabilities, establishing technical and data barriers. Additionally, the open platform model lowers the entry threshold for downstream customers, increasing model usage and ecosystem stickiness [7]. - The company, Zhiyuan Huazhang, is a provider of general multimodal large models and AI native applications, focusing on commercializing model capabilities. Its commercialization path centers on model API calls, while also offering model customization, project solutions, and AI native application services. Revenue recognition is primarily linked to model usage volume, service fulfillment progress, and specific delivery situations. The prospectus indicates that the company is still in the commercialization development stage, with continuous growth in model usage expected as downstream application scenarios expand [7]. Internet Media - The film market is anticipated to transition from "single film support" to "multiple strong resonance" and structural repair. Although Q1 2026 faces high base pressure from the 2025 release of "Nezha 2," the overall market is expected to return to normalization and show moderate growth throughout the year, driven by the diversification of leading domestic films and the recovery of imported film supply [8]. Infrastructure - Hongrun Construction, a leading enterprise with technical experience and project management capabilities, has accumulated over 300 kilometers of shield tunneling in more than 20 cities, including Shanghai, Hangzhou, and Ningbo. The company is deeply integrated with core urban agglomerations under the "Yangtze River Delta Integration" strategy, with stable business in rail transit, municipal, and underground space. In recent years, the company has been advancing a strategy of "construction + new energy + technology," expanding from traditional infrastructure to areas such as photovoltaic energy storage, distributed energy, and intelligent construction, resulting in a more balanced growth structure [8].