台积电担忧芯片过剩？马斯克：他们是对的，电力液冷都跟不上

Core Viewpoint - Musk agrees with TSMC's concerns about chip oversupply, predicting that the limiting factor in the AI industry will shift from chip manufacturing to the ability to "power on" chips, with a focus on energy supply, transformer configuration, and cooling system deployment [2][3][10]. Group 1: Energy Infrastructure as a Limiting Factor - Musk emphasizes that deploying AI chips involves more than just transporting GPUs to power plants; it requires addressing three core issues: gigawatt-level power supply, high-voltage conversion, and efficient cooling systems [6]. - The data center industry is undergoing a critical transition from air cooling to liquid cooling, which carries significant risks, such as potential losses of up to $1 billion if cooling systems fail [7]. - The current infrastructure for AI deployment is severely underestimated, indicating that the focus of the AI computing race is shifting from chip procurement to energy infrastructure capabilities [4]. Group 2: Chip Production vs. Power Supply - Musk predicts that by Q3 2026, the core bottleneck will transition from chip manufacturing to the ability to operationalize chips, as AI chip production is growing exponentially while power infrastructure is only expanding linearly [10]. - The intersection of chip production and power supply is critical; if chip output increases exponentially while power supply grows slowly, the two curves will eventually meet, limiting the actual deployment of chips [10]. - Despite differing opinions from industry peers, Musk insists that any missing component in power conversion or cooling systems will prevent chips from being utilized, fundamentally suppressing actual demand and procurement [10].