中金：如何展望存款搬家资金流向？

Core Viewpoint - The current focus on the trend of "deposit migration" is increasing, with a potential for approximately 2-4 trillion yuan of activated funds to flow into non-deposit investment areas by 2026, driven by the trend observed in 2025 [2][12]. Group 1: Deposit Migration Trends - The deposit maturity schedule for 2026 is expected to be more front-loaded, with an estimated 32 trillion yuan of long-term deposits maturing, a year-on-year increase of 4 trillion yuan [3][7]. - 61% of these long-term deposits are projected to mature in Q1 2026, compared to 51%-58% in the previous years [3][7]. - The re-pricing of bank deposits is expected to widen, with significant downward adjustments anticipated for various term deposits, which will further encourage deposit migration [9][24]. Group 2: Insights on Resident Risk Preferences - The current state of Chinese residents' balance sheets and income expectations suggests a slight increase in risk appetite by 2026, with a shift towards more liquid deposits and asset management products [3][19]. - Historical comparisons with Japan's low-interest rate era indicate that while risk appetite may increase, it will depend heavily on the recovery of residents' balance sheets [16][19]. Group 3: Outlook on Fund Flows - The insurance sector is expected to see increased demand, particularly from the bank insurance channel, with a positive growth outlook for premium income [4][24]. - Bank wealth management products are positioned advantageously, with an expected growth rate of 8-12% in 2026, despite potential valuation pressures [4][25]. - The "fixed income plus" products are anticipated to gain traction due to their competitive advantages in a low-interest environment, supported by ongoing capital market reforms [4][26]. - Private equity funds are expected to maintain a favorable outlook, benefiting from reduced entity investment and strong demand from high-net-worth individuals [4][27]. Group 4: Investment Behavior and Market Dynamics - The trend of deposit migration has already begun, with a notable decline in new long-term deposits and an increase in bank wealth management and public fund inflows [12][24]. - The liquidity management needs are expected to drive continued demand for money market funds, despite their low returns, as residents seek more flexible investment options [28][24]. - The overall investment landscape suggests that while there may be a gradual increase in risk appetite, the majority of activated funds will likely seek stable investment products in the short term [24][28].