连续14个月增加黄金储备：申万期货早间评论-20260108

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, with a total of 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, reflecting a rise of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, while foreign exchange reserves reached a new high of $335.79 billion, up by $11.5 billion [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI for December 2025 was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining within the 49%-50% range for 10 consecutive months [1]. - The ISM services PMI in the U.S. rose by 1.8 points to 54.4, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1]. - The ADP reported an increase of 41,000 in private sector employment in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing a period of consolidation, supported by a macroeconomic environment characterized by easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and a weak job market, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to continue, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases [2]. - Silver and platinum are also expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and steady industrial demand, particularly in solar energy applications for silver and catalytic converters for platinum [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the comprehensive sector leading gains while the oil and petrochemical sector lagged [3]. - The financing balance increased by 18.887 billion yuan to 25,623.09 billion yuan as of January 6 [3]. - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to attract overseas capital back to China, supporting asset revaluation and reinforcing a long-term bullish trend in the A-share market [3][11]. Group 4: Government Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, continuing a trend of monetary easing [8]. - The central bank's focus for 2026 includes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a strong expectation for easing policies at the beginning of the year [12].