市场交投活跃，IC合约贴水幅度大幅收窄【股指分红监控】

Group 1: Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of January 7, 2026, there are no companies in the proposal, decision, or implementation stages for dividends in the Shanghai 50 Index, and 4 companies do not plan to distribute dividends [1][3] - In the CSI 300 Index, there are also no companies in the proposal, decision, or implementation stages, with 25 companies not distributing dividends [1][3] - The CSI 500 Index has 1 company in the proposal stage, with 63 companies not distributing dividends [1][3] - The CSI 1000 Index has 1 company in the proposal stage, with 187 companies not distributing dividends [1][3] Group 2: Dividend Yield Comparison by Industry - The current dividend yield statistics show that the coal, banking, and steel industries rank the highest in terms of dividend yield among disclosed dividend proposals [4] Group 3: Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - As of January 7, 2026, the realized dividend yield for the Shanghai 50 Index is 0.00%, with a remaining yield of 2.34% [8] - The CSI 300 Index has a realized yield of 0.00% and a remaining yield of 1.85% [8] - The CSI 500 Index shows a realized yield of 0.00% and a remaining yield of 1.14% [8] - The CSI 1000 Index has a realized yield of 0.00% and a remaining yield of 0.89% [8] Group 4: Tracking of Index Futures Premium/Discount - As of January 7, 2026, the annualized discount for the IH main contract is 0.28%, for the IF main contract is 2.69%, for the IC main contract is 2.47%, and for the IM main contract is 12.36% [1][3] - The report will regularly track the premium/discount levels of index futures, considering the impact of dividends on the index [2] Group 5: Methodology for Dividend Point Estimation - The report outlines a methodology for estimating dividend points, which is crucial for accurately assessing the premium/discount of index futures [28] - The methodology includes obtaining constituent stock weights, dividend amounts, total market capitalization, and index closing prices [30] - The estimation process involves predicting net profits and dividend payout ratios based on historical data [33][38] Group 6: Historical Accuracy of Dividend Point Estimation - The accuracy of the dividend point estimation model has been analyzed, showing that predictions for the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices are generally accurate within 5 points, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices have a slightly larger error margin of around 10 points [44] - The model demonstrates good predictive accuracy for the main contracts of index futures [44]