开年必读 | 31家投研团队、47个期货品种的观点、共性逻辑、分歧点都在这了（二）

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, focusing on various sectors including non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The consensus among institutions is a bearish outlook for certain commodities, driven by factors such as oversupply and weak demand, particularly in iron ore and soda ash [3][5]. - Institutions like Yong'an Futures and Guotai Junan express concerns over supply expansion and stagnant demand, predicting price declines and the need for significant production cuts to achieve balance [3][5]. Ferrous Metals - The analysis indicates a mixed sentiment in the steel market, with some institutions predicting a range-bound market while others foresee downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand from the real estate sector [3][6]. - Institutions like Huatai Futures and GF Futures highlight the ongoing battle between weak domestic demand and potential policy support, leading to a complex market dynamic [3][6]. Energy and Chemicals - The outlook for coal and chemical products suggests a continuation of oversupply, with institutions forecasting price declines due to high inventory and production levels [4][10]. - The energy sector is characterized by a struggle between high supply and weak demand, with predictions of price fluctuations within defined ranges [4][10]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural commodities segment reflects a cautious approach, with institutions noting the need for production adjustments to address oversupply and maintain price stability [4][10]. - The consensus indicates that without significant demand recovery, prices are likely to remain under pressure [4][10]. Summary of Strategies - Institutions recommend a cautious trading strategy, focusing on short positions during price rebounds and monitoring supply-side adjustments to capture potential market opportunities [5][10]. - The overall sentiment suggests a need for vigilance regarding policy changes and market dynamics that could influence supply and demand balances across various commodities [5][10].