投资界·2026-01-08 02:54Core Viewpoint - The global transformer shortage is becoming critical due to surging electricity demand, with China emerging as the largest beneficiary of this crisis, controlling 60% of global transformer production capacity [2][3][4]. Group 1: Transformer Supply and Demand - The supply gap for electric transformers in the U.S. has increased by 116% and 41% for power transformers and distribution transformers, respectively, since 2019, indicating a significant demand surge [3]. - Europe plans to invest €584 billion to expand its power grid, but progress is hindered by transformer shortages [2]. - The average export price of Chinese transformers has risen to approximately $20,800 per unit, with export value reaching 29.711 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, showing a growth of 65.39% to Asia and over 138% to Europe [4]. Group 2: Reasons for Transformer Shortage - The transformer shortage is attributed to aging power infrastructure in Europe and the U.S., with 31% of transmission and 46% of distribution facilities in the U.S. being outdated [5]. - The rapid rise of new industries, particularly in AI and renewable energy, has further intensified the demand for transformers, with solar power plants requiring 1.8 times more transformers than traditional coal-fired plants [6]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - Major global energy companies are investing heavily to capture market share, with Siemens Energy announcing a €2 billion expansion and Hitachi planning to invest $6 billion by 2027 [7]. - China has formed a strong coalition in the transformer industry, integrating leading companies to create a "national team" capable of dominating the market [8]. Group 4: Historical Context and Development - China's transformer industry has evolved from a state of dependency on foreign technology in the 1980s to a leading global position, overcoming significant technical challenges [10][12]. - The breakthrough in high-voltage transformer technology marked a turning point for China's energy sector, enabling the country to develop a vast high-voltage transmission network [14][15]. Group 5: Current and Future Outlook - The global transformer market is projected to reach $1 trillion by 2031, reflecting the critical role of transformers in the ongoing energy transition [6]. - China's electricity generation has surpassed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours, establishing it as the world's first "electric power empire," with a significant share of global electricity consumption [16][19].