汽车国补政策落地，汽车终端需求调研

Group 1: Current Market Situation and Short-term Outlook - The market is expected to recover after consumers digest their hesitation within 40-60 days following the cancellation of policies, leading to a return to normalcy post-Spring Festival [2] - The automotive market experienced a significant decline in sales during the New Year period, primarily due to a lack of year-end purchasing frenzy and weak demand [3] - The "old-for-new" policy introduced on January 1 is seen as a long-term confidence booster but lacks immediate stimulus, with local execution details still pending [3] - Despite market hesitation, foot traffic at dealerships has not decreased, indicating that potential demand remains, although customers are currently in a wait-and-see mode [3] - In the coming weeks, automakers are expected to introduce "bottom-line" sales policies to stabilize the market and boost confidence, although the measures may not be substantial [3] Group 2: Policy Impact and Long-term Trends - The national policy aims to increase the average transaction price per vehicle and guide industry upgrades, potentially phasing out low-end electric vehicles through standards related to battery efficiency and range [4] - Models priced above 200,000 yuan, particularly high-end electric brands, are expected to benefit more, while brands relying on low-end models priced below 200,000 yuan will face greater challenges [4] - The aggressive price wars have largely ceased, leading to a quieter market sentiment [4] - Head brands like BYD, Tesla, Huawei, and others are expanding their advantages, while lower-tier brands are struggling due to blocked paths for inventory clearance through drastic price cuts [5] - The "old-for-new" policy details are still pending, with significant differences in local replacement subsidy policies affecting consumer decisions [5]