利润翻三倍！三星预计Q4利润20万亿、营收93万亿韩元双创新高，AI引爆存储“失控式”涨价

Core Viewpoint - Samsung Electronics is expected to report record-breaking Q4 earnings, driven by a strong demand for storage chips amid the AI boom, with operating profit projected to reach 20 trillion won (approximately 138 billion USD), a threefold increase year-on-year and a 64% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][2][4]. Financial Performance - Operating profit is anticipated to hit 20 trillion won, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 208% and a quarter-on-quarter surge of 64% [4]. - Sales are projected to reach 93 trillion won, marking a 23% increase year-on-year and an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter [4]. Market Dynamics - The current market is characterized by a significant supply shortage of standard storage chips due to a structural shift in production towards high-end chips to meet the insatiable demand from AI giants like Nvidia [5]. - The average selling price (ASP) of DRAM is expected to rise over 30% quarter-on-quarter, while NAND prices are projected to increase by about 20% [5]. Price Predictions - Wall Street analysts predict a severe supply shortage of storage chips in 2026, with server DRAM prices expected to soar by 144% year-on-year and enterprise SSD prices by 87% [7]. - Citigroup forecasts Samsung's operating profit to reach 155 trillion won in 2026, a staggering 253% increase year-on-year [7]. Competitive Positioning - Samsung is narrowing the gap in the High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) sector, having delivered advanced HBM4 samples to Nvidia for qualification testing, with expectations of mass production in the first half of the year [9]. - If successful, this could reposition Samsung as a key player in the AI supply chain, enhancing its valuation beyond just benefiting from cyclical price increases [9]. Impact on Downstream - The rising prices of storage chips are expected to lead to increased costs for downstream hardware, potentially impacting profit margins for Samsung's consumer electronics division and clients like Apple [10]. - Samsung's mobile business may see a decline in profits due to rising component costs, with DDR5 memory prices projected to increase by 40% in the current quarter and an additional 20% in the next [10]. Upcoming Financial Disclosure - Samsung is set to release its complete financial report, including net profit and detailed segment breakdowns, later this month, expected on January 29 [11].