螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板来啦：当前市场估值如何｜2026年1月份

Core Viewpoint - The overall market has recently risen, returning to a 3.9-star rating for the first time in years, indicating a potential shift in investment sentiment and market valuation [1]. Quantitative Signals - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization against GDP, shows that the market is moving from undervalued to a reasonable range as it approaches 80% [22]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile indicates that the current valuation is relatively high, with growth styles, especially small-cap growth, having rebounded significantly from historical lows [24]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 2.42, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this value exceeds the historical average for 76% of the time [26]. Qualitative Signals - The current financing balance in the A-share market is 25,434 billion, indicating a more active market compared to previous years [4]. - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are low, suggesting a bullish market sentiment as the failure rate has decreased significantly [32]. - The liquidity represented by M2 shows that the market is not at a low point, as the overall performance of the index is moving away from the M2 calculated bottom [34]. Market News - Recent policy changes, such as interest rate cuts and support for stock index funds, have been implemented to boost market confidence and activity [48].