光伏周价格 | 成本支撑叠加减产挺价，产业链价格重心“被动”上移

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the photovoltaic (PV) industry, highlighting the supply-demand dynamics, price trends, and inventory levels across various segments including polysilicon, wafers, cells, and modules. Polysilicon - Supply side: Polysilicon inventory has exceeded 480,000 tons, with a trend of accumulation continuing. Major manufacturers like Tongwei and GCL are using a bundling strategy of low-priced old orders with high-priced new orders to achieve limited sales, but overall supply pressure remains significant. It is expected that manufacturers will significantly reduce production to control supply under industry self-discipline quota constraints [4]. - Demand side: Due to the off-season and weakened terminal demand, downstream manufacturers are reducing operating rates and procurement to resist high prices, leading to a substantial shrinkage in market demand and low transaction volumes [5]. - Price trend: The market is currently in a situation of "having prices but no market," but with manufacturers strategically supporting prices, the transaction focus has slightly shifted upwards. As the supply-demand game intensifies, the market logic is expected to shift from passive accumulation to proactive production cuts by manufacturers to maintain prices [6]. Wafers - Supply side: Wafer inventory has risen to over 18 GW. To alleviate inventory and shipping pressure, wafer manufacturers are expected to continue slightly reducing operating rates in January to balance the market through proactive supply contraction [7]. - Demand side: The weak downstream demand has resulted in very few high-priced orders being completed, with the market in a phase of intense competition between upstream and downstream. The actual procurement willingness is low, leading to overall low transaction volumes [8]. - Price trend: Current actual transaction prices are generally about 0.05 RMB lower than quoted prices, reflecting a "having prices but no market" state. In the short term, due to weak terminal demand and cost pressures, prices lack further upward momentum and are expected to remain in a stagnant oscillation pattern [9]. Battery Cells - Supply side: The current battery inventory cycle has exceeded 8 days and is showing a continuous accumulation trend. Due to rising costs from upstream silicon and silver paste prices, battery manufacturers are generally choosing to significantly reduce operating rates in January to alleviate operational pressure [9]. - Demand side: Downstream acceptance of current price increases is poor, leading to a "having prices but no market" situation. Although most manufacturers adhere to a bottom line of not selling below 0.38 RMB/W, the actual transaction volume remains low due to weak terminal procurement willingness [10]. - Price trend: Mainstream quotes are maintained at 0.38-0.4 RMB/W. In the short term, despite accumulation pressure, the high costs of silicon and silver paste, along with industry self-discipline, make downward price adjustments difficult. Future price trends will be highly correlated with fluctuations in silver paste prices [11]. Modules - Supply side: Short-term inventory digestion in the module segment is evident, primarily due to some projects and distributors hoarding large amounts of low-priced orders out of concern for significant future price increases. However, this inventory shift does not reflect actual consumption, as terminal demand remains weak and actual orders are scarce [12][13]. - Demand side: Although the intermediate channel is actively stocking, actual terminal demand remains weak, with new orders being scarce. The significant price increases have increasingly suppressed terminal demand, resulting in a mismatch between "hot intermediates and cold terminals" [14]. - Price trend: Due to the influence of battery prices, module costs have risen to around 0.75 RMB/W. Leading companies have raised quotes to 0.82-0.86 RMB/W, leading to the complete disappearance of low-priced orders. Although high-priced transactions have not yet materialized, strong cost support is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in prices amid supply-demand negotiations [15].