白重恩：为什么要“投资于改革”？

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to shift focus from traditional investments in physical assets and human capital to "investment in reform" to address current economic challenges and achieve long-term sustainable growth [4][5]. Group 1: Limitations of Traditional Investment Directions - Current investment strategies primarily focus on "investment in physical assets" and "investment in human capital," both of which face constraints in the current environment [6]. - "Investment in physical assets" is limited due to high inventory in real estate, diminishing returns in traditional infrastructure, and potential overcapacity in certain manufacturing sectors [6]. - "Investment in human capital" is crucial for sectors like healthcare and education, but it must consider fiscal sustainability, as such expenditures are rigid and difficult to reverse [6]. Group 2: Establishing a Strategic Direction for "Investment in Reform" - The article suggests establishing a policy direction focused on "investment in reform" to address issues of insufficient demand and weak prices [7]. - Utilizing the current low-cost environment for fiscal deficits and monetary expansion can help cover the transitional costs of reforms, thereby optimizing the fiscal structure and institutional arrangements [7]. Group 3: Historical Experience - Reform of State-Owned Commercial Banks - The reform of state-owned commercial banks in the late 1990s serves as a successful example of "investment in reform," where approximately 1.4 trillion yuan of non-performing assets were removed, accounting for about 17% of GDP at that time [9]. - This reform not only mitigated financial risks but also laid the groundwork for the modernization of the banking system and the establishment of a vertical management system to shield banks from local government interference [9]. Group 4: Pathway Suggestions for Local Fiscal and Financing Platform Reform - The article recommends applying the lessons from bank reforms to local fiscal reforms and financing platform transformations, addressing the structural issues underlying local debt [10]. - Suggestions include central government issuance of bonds to replace local debt, comprehensive reform of fiscal systems, and ensuring that financing platforms operate as true market entities [10]. - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is essential, with recommendations for increased bond issuance and liquidity support to stimulate demand and stabilize prices [10]. Conclusion - The article concludes that leveraging the current macroeconomic policy window to enhance fiscal and monetary policies and focus funding on transitional reform costs is an effective strategy for addressing short-term demand issues and achieving long-term goals of financial strength and high-quality development during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [11].