岗位没有消失，但好工作更难找了

Core Viewpoint - The employment situation in 2025 is characterized by a paradox where macroeconomic indicators show stability, but individual experiences of employment are increasingly negative, leading to a perception of a declining availability of desirable jobs [4]. Group 1: Structural Challenges - The transformation of industrial structure is deepening, with traditional labor-intensive sectors losing their capacity to absorb employment, while new industries like AI and digital economy are still in a phase of selective hiring [6]. - Economic growth is slowing down, and uncertainty is increasing, causing companies to adopt more cautious hiring practices, leading to a conservative and flexible employment demand [7]. - Weak consumer recovery is limiting the expansion of traditional employment sectors, with rising operational costs squeezing profit margins for small service businesses, resulting in a trend of "less hiring, slower hiring, and short-term hiring" [7]. Group 2: Key Facts - In 2025, the number of college graduates reached 12.22 million, marking a record high, with projections indicating this number will remain above 12 million for the next decade [9]. - The youth unemployment rate for those aged 16-24 is persistently high, fluctuating between 16% and 18%, significantly above the overall unemployment rate of around 5% [9]. - There is a notable increase in risk-averse choices among youth, with 3.718 million candidates applying for national civil service exams in 2026, surpassing the number of graduate school applicants for the first time in over a decade [10]. Group 3: Employment Mismatch - The current employment issue is fundamentally one of mismatch rather than disappearance, with a significant portion of the workforce unable to find suitable positions due to skill and expectation mismatches [14]. - Skills mismatch is evident as the demand for complex, integrated skills rises, while the supply of general skills remains abundant, leading to difficulties for highly educated workers to find appropriate roles [14]. - Expectation mismatches are also prevalent, with young people seeking job stability and security that many available positions do not offer, leading to a concentration of talent in stable but less innovative sectors [15]. Group 4: AI's Impact on Employment - AI is reshaping the employment landscape, leading to job polarization where high-end positions are expanding while middle-skill jobs are being systematically compressed [20][21]. - New opportunities are emerging in AI-related fields, with a growing demand for technical roles such as algorithm training and data annotation, indicating a shift in the types of skills that are valued in the labor market [22]. - The rise of flexible employment and new job forms is becoming a significant channel for income generation, with the government actively promoting these trends as part of its long-term economic strategy [24]. Group 5: Rural Employment Trends - The early return of migrant workers to rural areas in 2025 is attributed to weak demand in construction and manufacturing, leading to increased job insecurity and financial pressures on families [29]. - The trend of declining inter-provincial migrant workers is evident, with the number dropping from 78.67 million in 2014 to 68.4 million in 2024, reflecting changing attitudes towards urban employment [30]. - The employment risks for migrant workers have shifted from merely finding work to concerns about job security and fair compensation, highlighting the need for policies that address these emerging challenges [31].